GoBoB Chasing

This is one of the most interesting forecast that I have ever seen:
(click to see full size)

I really want to chase this one, but logistics may not make it possible for me to go. Rita is looking very impressive on satellite imagery. The eyewall has become very well defined. It looks like this thing could strengthen to a cat 5. Eyewall replacement cycles, cooler ocean temperatures, and dry air entrainment will weaken her before landfall, but the nightmare a another worst case scenario for Galveston and Houston are not out of the question.
Storm surge and flooding from extreme rain may be the primary mode of destruction for Houston at this point.

Harms Way

Steve Miller, Andrea Miller, and I will likely be going after Rita. Rita’s landfall is eminent within the Texas gulf coast. Right now everyone is predicting Galveston, TX.

I believe it will be further South near Corpus Christi, based on a slower eroding of the high. I believe the ridge of high pressure is stronger than the models are showing.

This is beyond 72 hours so, I could be totally wrong, but I could be right.

Red Rules and Blue Rules

There is plenty of finger pointing going around Hurricane Katrina. Clearly there is plenty of blame to go around and there were tremendous failures at the Federal, State, and Local levels of government. I actually believe the blame is apolitical and a failure of C3I (more later).

My first real (had to wear a tie) job was in a small chain of camera stores that was owned by an enormous photo processor (Fuqua). Like most places I have worked there was a employee manual that spelled out all of the rules and how to respond to things like shoplifters. The handbook was double spaced and neatly typed on a single side of the page and housed in a 3-ring binder. Several copies were available at each site. One for the showroom, one available for check-out to new employees, and there was one special copy that was in my managers top left desk drawer in the back office.

What was unique to this one manual, was that my manager had gone through with blue and red pen and neatly color coded the entire document with a ruler by underlining. Blue was a rule, but could probably be stretched or maybe even broken if there was a good reason. Red was a rule that would get you fired if you broke it. As a 17 year old kid, I did not realize how effective an idea this was. Katrina has made me revisit this concept.

I was reading some of the FEMA’s procedures after hearing some amazing stories in the media. To be clear, it appears that they are designed to prevent theft, fraud, and abuse. This is a laudable goal and probably appropriate for a normal disaster declaration. Part of the problem is that the are so many disasters declared that are small and affect four or five counties at a time. They are no less tragic for the affected, but so much smaller in scope. The blue rule disasters should attempt to follow all of the rules.

Katrina is a red rule storm. Break the blue ones as necessary, and break a red one with the understanding that there will probably be consequences. All levels of government; get your colored BIC pens out, about 85% of the rules are BLUE!!!!

The greatest failure in this disaster in not a levee, but in the days of the cold war what was referred to as C3I or C-Cubed-I. It stands for Communication, Command, Control, and Information. We need hardened communication infrastructure with redundant interoperable radio communications back-up. There need to be clear tasking of responsibilities. Individuals must be held to greater personal accountability. There should be ready response supplies available for immediate airlift into any affected area within 12-24 hours. Moth balled military facilities should be ready within 72 hour to feed, clothe, house, cleanse, and shelter victims of minimal means.

Please take a look this movie that details the response to the 1938 hurricane that hit New England. I am confident that we can learn from this and do better. Ultimately a major Earthquake will make this appear to be a minor league, off season, pickup effort.

This is probably the most accurate coverage of the ongoing disaster.

Live Coverage from local station WWLTV TV.

I’ll have some links up later, but there was a disaster planning exercise called “Hurricane Pam.” This exact sceenario was wargamed with Baton Rouge as the foci by Federal, State, and Local authorities.