Archive for May, 2007

First agave and now barley – Global starvation to follow!

Posted on May 30th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Tangents

Forget global warming as apparently starvation will be a far greater threat as farmers abandon all crops as foodstuffs instead producing corn mash ethanol for fuel. This just in from MSNBC.com.

AYING, Germany – Like most Germans, brewer Helmut Erdmann is all for the fight against global warming. Unless, that is, it drives up the price of his beer.

And that is exactly what is happening to Erdmann and other German brewers as farmers abandon barley — the raw material for the national beverage — to plant other, subsidized crops for sale as environmentally friendly biofuels.

“Beer prices are a very emotional issue in Germany — people expect it to be as inexpensive as other basic staples like eggs, bread and milk,” said Erdmann, director of the family-owned Ayinger brewery in Aying, an idyllic village nestled between Bavaria’s rolling hills and dark forests with the towering Alps on the far horizon.

“With the current spike in barley prices, we won’t be able to avoid a price increase of our beer any longer,” Erdmann said, stopping to sample his freshly brewed, golden product right from the steel fermentation kettle.

In the last two years, the price of barley has doubled to $271 per ton as farmers plant more crops such as rapeseed and corn that can be turned into ethanol or biodiesel, a fuel made from vegetable oil.

As a result, the price for the key ingredient in beer — barley malt, or barley that has been allowed to germinate — has soared by more than 40 percent, to around 385 euros or $522 per ton, from around 270 euros a ton two years ago, according to the Bavarian Brewers’ Association.

Jimmy Buffet, I’m counting on some support here!

Posted on May 29th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Tangents

I’ve held my remarks about biofuels and the frivolity, but this headline from MSNBC.com is too serious to ignore.

MEXICO CITY – Mexican farmers are setting ablaze fields of blue agave, the cactus-like plant used to make the fiery spirit tequila, and resowing the land with corn as soaring U.S. ethanol demand pushes up prices.

The switch to corn will contribute to an expected scarcity of agave in coming years, with officials predicting that farmers will plant between 25 percent and 35 percent less agave this year to turn the land over to corn.

“Those growers are going after what pays best now,” said Ismael Vicente Ramirez, head of agriculture at Mexico’s Tequila Regulatory Council.

05-23-07 Chase Report

Posted on May 24th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Chase Reports

Wednesday looked to be a “classic chase day” in the words or Tim Vasquez’s morning outlook. SPC had a moderate risk and I was able to leave work at 11:00AM. We debated between targeting Southern Kansas and Texas Panhandle. It didn’t really matter as our goal was to get west and see what would fire. After a quick burger in Woodward, we ran into Charles Allision at the “gas station of broken dreams.” I’ve spent hundreds of dollars for gas and have never intercepted a tornado after visiting this place. Chase partners for this 676 mile journey were Robert and Karen Hall. A call to the chase hotline confirmed that Kansas was more upslope and with storms firing in Texas, it would be a panhandle chase day. We initially tried to intercept the storm about 20 north of Miami, TX. At 4:53 it was readily apparent this storm had grown too big for a reasonable core punch. The Doppler on Wheels (DOW) passed heading north on 70 and it was time to do the same. We turned around then headed east to get into a better position. The map shows our positions as logged by GPS in green diamonds and the tornado reports from the SPC as red triangles. We were always close, but failed to see any tornadoes.

A quick screen capture from Baron’s WxWorx satellite based radar that we have in the chase vehicle. You can see we are close (the white blob at the center is us). Yellow range rings are at 25 an 50 miles.
As were driving back home I decided to download images and check if any of them had any details that were obscured by the challenging viewing conditions. I found IMG_0151.JPG that was taken at 8:12 PM. This image was taken 6 miles south of Darrouzett, TX. There is nice structure aloft and what sure appears to be debris where debris would be if this is a tornado.

Magnified and contrast enhanced image.
I don’t get caught up in tornado counts and this could be my imagination. If you have some Photoshop skills, here is a high resolution copy for analysis. I would appreciate feedback that this is or is not a tornado.

05-23-07 Chsae Plan

Posted on May 23rd, 2007 by Bob Hall in Chase Plans

Best spot appears to be pan handles moving into Kansas.

Ides of May Update (5-15-07)

Posted on May 15th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Chase Plans

After not chasing May 4th because of work, and screwing up May 5th I was starting to think the chase season for ‘07 might be over. Over the past couple of years I’ve learned not to put too much faith in the long term models though. As of yesterday, it was looking pretty sparse with ridging and flow in place that looked more like July than May. Things started to evolve better this morning and this afternoon is even more tantilizing. Dodge City, KS (DDC) afternoon’s Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) is encouraging:

THIS EVOLUTION HAS A NUMBER OF SIMILARITIES WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS EPISODES OF AMPLIFYING TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE WALLOWED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CYCLIC PATTERN HAS PREVAILED SINCE AT LEAST LAST DECEMBER, AND NEARLY EVERY EPISODE HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

It does have some moisture problems, but hopefully by Memorial Day Weekend we will have some chances.

Reflections on Greensburg, KS Tornado

Posted on May 8th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Tangents

I was watching high resolution radar Friday night as I was preparing to chase on Saturday. I was initially relieved to see the storm make a turn that would spare Greensburg. The storm then changed course and it looked like Greensburg would take a direct hit. As I went from base reflectivity to storm relative velocity to observe the winds I was dumbfounded as I saw at least 150 knot gate-to-gate shear. This was as big and bad as tornadoes get (F5) and it was going to hit this town in about nine minutes and people were going to die.

Somewhere in the middle of this analysis my parents called to say that CNN or the Weather Channel (I can’t remember) was reporting a “Tornado Emergency.” I was in the process of pulling up the Dodge City, KS (DDC) Forecast Office’s web page to monitor their warnings. I was somewhat relieved to see the forecaster name at the bottom of the warning was UMSCHEID. Mike Umscheid is also a storm chaser and clearly understood the gravity of what he was looking at on his AWIPS workstation. Chasers and spotters were reporting a 1-1/2 mile wide tornado on the ground.

I sat at my computer for the next twenty as I watched this storm do exactly the thing no one wanted. People were going to die and other than to warn them, no one in the world could help them. I had a feeling I have not had since May 3rd 1999. As I watched Oklahoma City, OK on TV.    Monday, one of my coworkers asked if I was up there. When I said “no,” She commented, “Bet you wish you were.” “No I really don’t. Nighttime tornadoes suck, and I don’t ever want to see peoples lives lost or destroyed.”

05-05-07 Stick with one plan

Posted on May 6th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Chase Reports

Too often these past couple of chase seasons I’ve tried to meld a hybrid of SPC/NWSFO/Personal Model Analysis/Chaser Friend Plans/TV Meteorologist/Storm Track Posters/Paid Forecaster into a best of all worlds chase day plan. It just doesn’t work!

I could have used any ONE of these today and grabbed a tornado. With chase partners Robert and Karen Hall we chased two beautiful cells that came as close to wrapping up a tornado as is possible with only one or two other chasers on the same storm. Both storms later produced significant tornadoes in Kansas after I decided to abandon for “better” prospects. There were scores of chasers on many of these other storms.

The second cell that we intercepted was simply gorgeous and only one other chaser and we were under the meso looking up her skirt (It was amazing,) because of the lack of a powerful Rear Flank Down Draft (RFD) we could see the total vertical accent and shearing and yet had a wall cloud with good rotation that came so close to producing. The lack of RFD and incredible view likely are why it could not produce a tornado. I’ve never seen this 30,000 ft. vertical structure and had a storm come so close to wrapping up at in the same location.

I have lots of good still and high definition video that may actually be of some research value (first time I have ever made that claim). One other chaser in a yellow pickup truck and the three-of-us had this storm to ourselves for nearly 12 minutes. We were then joined by approximately 25 chasers, a Sherriff, a Highway Patrolman, and a News Channel 9 helicopter within 150 feet. Convergence indeed.

5-5-07 The chase is on

Posted on May 5th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Chase Plans

Well apparently using word 2007’s built in feature to update your Word Press blog is a bad idea. I managed to corrupt the database last night. I think I might have this recovered. This is my first High Risk chase of the year. Just made it past nine red lights in Enid, OK.
Debating between TX panhandle and Dodge City. Should be quite a chaser convergence today.
Stay Tuned…

Test

Posted on May 4th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Uncategorized

Greensburg, KS

Posted on May 4th, 2007 by Bob Hall in Uncategorized

The cap did not hold and a dangerous (likely killer) tornado appears to have taken a direct blow to a number of Kansas towns. Nighttime tornadoes are bad for so many reasons. Here is a radar capture of base reflectivity. I have been watching all afternoon an hoping the cap would hold. Reports from and number of chasers currently in Greensburg are reporting absolute chaos as they are rescuing people.

11:36 PM and this storm is still being reported to be producing a tornado 1 mile wide and endangering other Kansas towns. Please keep these small towns in your thoughts. Many families will be lucky if they escape with their lives and little else.