I’m starting to sound like an aging D.J. counting down the top ten, but I continue to be amazed by the synoptic and regional weather patterns. This is modified Gulf of Mexico moisture and yet we are still looking at 1.75 to 2 plus inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period on March 2nd . Moisture has been the limiting factor the past several years in Oklahoma.
Seriously… Get Ready!!!
Amazingly the active weather patterns continue. This time the models are advertising buckets of rain on Saturday. With Gulf of Mexico open for business and strong low pressure system rolling through every 3-4 days this could really be an incredible weather year.
Tomorrow is the annual Tulsa Skywarn conference. It will be interesting to see how excited everyone is
On Feb. 9th the high temperature in Tulsa, OK was 63° F. Excerpts from NWS Tulsa’s Area Forecast Discussion…
VERY COMPLICATED AND DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH NOT ONE
BUT TWO POTENTIAL WINTER STORMS TO DEAL WITH THIS WEEK. ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS CHARGING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL
BLAST WELL SOUTH OF WHERE WE THOUGHT IT WOULD 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERABLY AS A RESULT WITH FORECAST
MAXIMUMS A BLEND OF THE WRF/NAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A QUICK WARMUP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY…ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME…A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM…THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT WINTRY WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN…THE COLD AIR LOOKS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT.
I noted earlier that we are in an active weather pattern. This next week is certainly no exception. From the NWS Tulsa’s Hazardous Weather Outlook:
DISCUSSION…
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
SUNDAY AND MONDAY PROVIDE A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER SCENARIOS. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE BY SUNDAY NIGHT… PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE. WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRECIPITATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL FREEZING AIR… GIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN… POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY… THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING… THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA… WITH A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS… WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY AGAIN EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN… POSSIBILITY LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES… LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED… THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
January 7th and February 5th have produced killer tornado outbreaks that will likely claim 100 victims when the counting is complete. We are in a very active weather pattern that if undisturbed could create record fury across the plains this spring.
The men and women of the National Weather Service have done an excellent job so far. Each deadly storm has had a 12 to 22 minute warning lead time from issuance based on my analysis. This is the best that can be expected from our current state of technology and understanding of storm dynamics.
MAKE SURE YOU GET THE WARNING!!! PURCHASE A NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO!!!
Valentines day, Mother’s day, Father’s day are all just around the corner. This is a gift that WILL save lives. People died last night that should not. If you get the warning, you can react and live another day.
I am a huge fan of irony; six weeks ago I predicted the Patriots would go 18 and 1.
I was forwarded a joke by my attorney earlier today that I liked.
A bus carrying only ugly people crashes into an oncoming truck, and everyone inside dies. As they stand at the Pearly Gates waiting to enter Paradise and meet their maker, God decides to grant each person one wish because of the grief they have experienced.
They’re all lined up, and God asks the first one what the wish is. “I want to be gorgeous,” and so God snaps his fingers, and it is done.
The second one in line hears this and says “I want to be gorgeous too” Another snap of His fingers and the wish is granted.
This goes on for a while with each one asking to be gorgeous, but when God is halfway down the line, the last guy in the line starts laughing.
When there are only ten people left, this guy is rolling on the floor, laughing his head off.
Finally, God reaches this last guy and asks him what his wish will be. The guy eventually calms down and says:
“Make ‘em all ugly again.”
NEXT TIME YOU’RE LAST IN LINE. BE HAPPY!
So far 2008 is shaping up as a potentially active weather year. I might get out after midnight.
waning moonl
94% of current moon cycle
next new moon: 09-08-2010
next full moon: 09-23-2010
SPC
