GoBoB Chasing

After installing a new battery in the Jeep (the last one was less than 3 months old) and configuring an emergency chase laptop (my five year old dedicated one is experiencing power issues), I finally got to look at some weather.

Well crud, I knew this was going to be a Nebraska-Iowa-Minnesota event.

SPC…
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE SOUTH OF KANSAS. LATEST THINKING IS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NEB/SERN SD/WRN IA INTO SRN MN.

One of the things that bugs the heck out of me is searching each National Weather Service Forecast Office web page to see where they have hidden their Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook. Here are direct links to the ones that will be in play tomorrow.

Wichita, KS
AFD HWO Enhanced

Topeka, KS
AFD HWO Enhanced

Dodge City, KS
AFD HWO Enhanced

Hastings, NE
AFD HWO Enhanced

Norman, OK
AFD HWO Enhanced

Tulsa, OK
AFD HWO Enhanced

Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Day 2 MCD Watches Soundings RUC

From the Storm Prediction Center Outlook…

A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 2 /THURSDAY JUNE 5/. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE – AND THEREFORE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TYPE — REMAIN

WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY…MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT OF AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY -CAPPED AIRMASS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MODE WITH TIME. AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE DOMINANT MODE BECOMES LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT…THOUGH STILL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE THESE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO OUTBREAK…A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS…OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO…THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN AND ERN NEB/WRN IA

From this morning’s SPC Day 3 outlook…

…GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS…
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN STATES IS FORECAST TO OPEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LARGE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY…UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING DUE TO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGH DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS WHERE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED THURSDAY EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH COMES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON A TRACK SOUTH OF CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS. ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES…AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE THREAT.