GoBoB Chasing

One week ago Steve Miller (OK) and I chased hurricane Ike. While I don’t have an actual “bucket list” there are some things I do want to experience before my time on this planet is up. This was the first hurricane either of us has ever experienced. We left Moore, Ok well provisioned with 18 extra gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of fresh water, and about seven days worth of nonperishable food and snacks.

The biggest disappoints were that the storm changed in trajectory and timing. It is hard to shoot compelling imagery at 2:30 in the morning when all of the power has gone out. Additionally the track continued northward confounding our efforts to intercept in a more manageable location like Corpus Christi. After surveying some local tree damage, we bugged out Saturday morning. I can’t say the experience was particularly profound and it is pretty much what you would expect: WINDY and RAINY.

Having spent 12 days in December without power because of an ice storm, I can relate to how this is probably beginning to drag on the mental state of people. We had running water throughout and gasoline stations were on generators within 24 hours. Houston has been blessed with uncharacteristic cool dry air this past week. I might chase another hurricane, but it is no longer a must do. If I lived within 25 miles of the coast, I doubt that I would evacuate, but I would be well provisioned to ride out an the extended aftermath.

Steve Miller (OK) and I are hunkered down in Wharton, TX. After carefully surveying north of Port Lavaca, TX to south of Freeport, TX all morning and afternoon we could not find a suitable location to ride out a likely cat 3 hurricane in the middle of the night. We strongly considered Lake Jackson, but discretion (and fear of eminent death) suggested Wharton might be a better choice. For security reasons, I can’t disclose our exact location at this time. There will ultimately be photos and video that will vindicate our choice.

Reference Map

Bob Sunset

Steve Sunset

As we were surveying costal locations we just missed the evacuation of Surfside as the road had flooded to make it completely impassible. A quick check of the maps showed we were at six feet above sea level. Here is a quick video of the flooding it is denoted as point “1” on this map (this was shot at 2:00 PM CDT). For point of reference we also considered Freeport “2” and Clute “3”. There were substantial media interests camped out in Clute, but our maps showed about 12 feet of elevation.

Currently in Freeport, TX where flooding of the bridges is already occurring at 2:00 PM CDT. We are at 6 feet of elevation and moving to higher ground.

At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday Steve Miller (OK) and I a stationed in Victoria Texas to eventually intercept Ike. The projected path shifted north today, but our current location gives us an excellent road network to work with.

Today was our first venture into a huhrricane region. Northward flow consisted of a lot ambulances evacuating needy patients. Also moving north were trailers laiden with horses and cows. Approximately 40 miles from the coast preparation were taken in earnest and those with means have boarded windows and bugged out.

I’ve generally given the National Hurricane Center props for their forecasting prowess. This year they have added substantial wiggle room to anything past 48 hours.

Post Katrina we have had two successful mass evacuations Houston (Rita) and NOLA (Gustav). Given the complacent nature of humans, I believe Houston would have a lot more stragglers since Rita was such a non-event. Only time will tell, but I can’t imagine people staying motivated enough to bug-out even once every three years. The latest…

THE OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS... IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.


Gustav demonstrated the vast variability in predicting hurricane intensity and path. Obviously there is a lot to still be learned. It is fortunate that Gustav weakened considerably over Cuba, did not strengthen in the warmer water, and encountered sufficient shear to greatly reduce the impact.

Many, including myself thought this might be the big one for New Orleans, LA. We have had two massive evacuations (Rita ’05 and Gustav ’08) that were very successful because people were motivated to get out of harms way. Neither of these storms lived up to their potential and many fell more inconvenienced than relieved. It is a necessary evil that some people will always be needlessly evacuated because of the uncertainties involved. Hopefully everyone will understand that this is the nature of the beast and not become complacent in the future. With three batters on deck we’ll see what happens.